Friday, April 03, 2009

Voros' 2010 World Cup Qualification Odds

Voros has posted odds for every team on his web site (along with an analysis), which are based on his national team rankings. He's had a pretty decent track record with these things; I believe his 2006 World Cup simulations had France as the top team and his EURO 2008 simulations had Spain second.

It's great stuff, because he's taking into account the strengths of the team which is hard to quantify. I love to see people put together simulations like that, but I wanted to see how the teams broke down by group rather than just in a big list like he has it. So I've done that here:

Africa

Cameroon 32.73%
Gabon 26.25%
Morocco 24.20%
Togo 16.82%


Tunisia 51.97%
Nigeria 44.34%
Mozambique 2.60%
Kenya 1.09%


Egypt 56.38%
Zambia 23.29%
Algeria 15.72%
Rwanda 4.61%


Ghana 72.35%
Mali 23.33%
Benin 3.17%
Sudan 1.15%


Côte d'Ivoire 89.06%
Burkina Faso 5.44%
Guinea 5.27%
Malawi 0.23%


Asia/Oceania

Australia 99.98%
Japan 99.94%
Bahrain 18.98%
Uzbekistan 7.81%
Qatar 0.12%


Korea Republic 98.37%
Saudi Arabia 66.16%
Iran 44.78%
Korea DPR 43.20%
UAE out


New Zealand 20.66%


Europe

Denmark 84.38%
Sweden 45.81%
Portugal 15.51%
Hungary 6.80%
Albania 0.00%
Malta out


Greece 78.36%
Switzerland 59.58%
Israel 10.73%
Latvia 0.16%
Luxembourg 0.00%
Moldova 0.00%


Slovakia 69.14%
Czech Republic 37.08%
Poland 22.62%
Slovenia 6.75%
Northern Ireland 5.49%
San Marino out


Germany 96.31%
Russia 50.87%
Finland 5.96%
Wales 0.04%
Azerbaijan 0.00%
Liechtenstein 0.00%


Spain 99.99%
Bosnia-Herzegovina 18.11%
Turkey 15.47%
Belgium 0.08%
Armenia 0.00%
Estonia 0.00%


England 98.89%
Croatia 33.64%
Ukraine 22.47%
Belarus 1.19%
Andorra 0.00%
Kazakhstan 0.00%


France 84.19%
Serbia 71.04%
Lithuania 1.37%
Austria 1.03%
Romania 0.63%
Faroe Islands 0.00%


Italy 95.00%
Ireland Republic 29.75%
Bulgaria 18.50%
Montenegro 0.37%
Cyprus 0.02%
Georgia 0.00%


Netherlands 99.89%
Scotland 12.68%
Norway 0.10%
Iceland 0.00%
Macedonia FYR 0.00%

North America

USA 96.86%
Mexico 93.99%
Costa Rica 71.59%
Honduras 66.42%
Trinidad & Tobago 2.20%
El Salvador 1.13%


South America

Brazil 99.87%
Paraguay 99.16%
Argentina 94.64%
Chile 79.85%
Uruguay 72.30%
Colombia 12.96%
Ecuador 6.32%
Venezuela 1.74%
Bolivia 0.97%
Peru 0.00%

Labels:

Comments on "Voros' 2010 World Cup Qualification Odds"

 

Anonymous dethwing said ... (7:32 PM, April 05, 2009) : 

It's surprising to me that Netherlands % is smaller than Spain. I mean, they're both pretty much mortal locks, but Netherlands have already clinched 2nd, and can clinch first next game. Spain hasn't, and can only assure themselves 2nd next time.

 

post a comment